Month: June 2014

Oil prices continue their fall, as the Iraq situation gets increasingly discounted. At least as it relates to oil, the damage in Iraq has not been tangible. The Baiji refinery remains in play, but whoever gets it looks to keep it operating.… Read more

Oil prices came under pressure, yesterday, as it becomes clear that Iraq’s southern oil fields will not fall to ISIS insurgents in Iraq in the near future. Iraqi forces are fighting back, and the initial Blitzkrieg has been slowed just short of Baghdad.… Read more

he oil market is digesting the Iraq situation, showing little reaction to the continued advance of ISIS fighters. There is a growing consensus that ISIS will not overrun Baghdad or the southern oil infrastructure. In fact, Iraq officialdom in Baghdad are claiming that output and exports will surge in the coming weeks, which is consistent with their recent pattern and their success in upgrading the export system in Basra.… Read more

The crisis in Iraq still dominates the gaze of the oil market. WTI prices inched above $107 per barrel overnight, as the ISIL caliphate comes together. Now, apparently, ISIL forces have secured all of the Syrian border towns and at least one key border crossing into Jordan.… Read more

The news out of Iraq this morning is that the large, 300k bpd, Bajii refinery is about to fall into the hands of ISIS fighters. The oil market complex is nonplussed, probably because the lost output will not likely be replaced via imports given the lack of security within the country.… Read more

More ground has been captured by insurgents in Iraq, and the rapidly developing situation has caused a surge higher still in oil prices. Brent topped $112 per barrel, and WTI traded above $107. The oil market had been pacing the developments and reacted mildly, at first.… Read more

The recent strength of WTI prices persists, with prices surging above $104. The rise is attributable to the strength in Chinese exports which soared 7% last month, as consumers worldwide bought up Chinese made goods. This helps everyone look past China’s internal problems and take a more positive view of their economic prospects going forward.… Read more

WTI prices are displaying a relative calm, after showing little reaction the moves by the ECB to combat inflation. In fact, it seemed like the complex was experiencing an inside baseball day, with Brent-WTI spread showing some volatility, as it reversed after hitting a key narrowing point.… Read more

Crude oil prices are back on the rise, back above $103, this morning. As happened two weeks ago, a modest decline in overall crude oil inventories is having an outsized reaction. The API reported a 1.8 million barrel fall in US crude oil inventories last night.… Read more

WTI crude oil prices are lower this morning, after falling, yesterday. Bloomberg and Reuters surveys of OPEC output showed the cartel pumping just 30 million bpd, and that is a compelling fundamental data point. As we mentioned, yesterday, the output rise comes courtesy of increased output from Iraq and Angola, which more than offset the losses from Libya.… Read more