Month: October 2013

Crude oil prices are lower this morning, as the current protagonist, Libya improves its oil output. According to a Libyan oil minister, production has rebounded to around 300k bpd, with exports around 200k bpd. Prices were supported, earlier in the week, by news of a virtual halt of Libyan output, due to the latest round of internal political strife.… Read more

Libya is generating considerable headline risk for Brent crude oil prices, especially, at the moment. Prices have surged and fallen back on various reports of output halts and restarts on Monday and Tuesday. This morning, Hess, which is now a company mostly focused on exploration and production, warned that civil unrest in Libya would keep its Libyan production at the low end of estimates going forward.… Read more

Oil rebounded mildly, yesterday, on word of a refinery in the Midwest, and news that pipeline operator, Enbridge, was apportioning carriage volumes on several of its Canadian and Midwest lines. The market was also oversold, after falling so rapidly over the course of the past several sessions.… Read more

Oil prices continue to exhibit significant weakness, after having broken through key support levels. The recent sell-off was punctuated by the large rise in crude oil inventories reported by the EIA, yesterday, of 5.2 million barrels. The Cushing glut has moved down the line to the Gulf Coast, where pricing is now $4.00 per barrel lower than WTI.… Read more

The API reported another large crude oil inventory build, in its report last night, which should be confirmed by the EIA report later this morning. Crude oil inventories rose by 3 million barrels and Cushing, OK inventories rose nearly 500k. The November WTI futures contract expired in weak fashion, increasing its discount to the now front-month December contract, which fell precipitously in overnight trading, below $97.… Read more

The expiring November WTI and the second month December WTI contract both closed below $100 per barrel for the first time since July. We have long bemoaned the extended the pattern of consolidation between 102 and 109, and now we have the beginnings of a breakout.… Read more

Front-month (November) WTI futures have spent most of the overnight session below $100 per barrel. This is the first break of that level, since July. The November contract expires tomorrow, but the December contract has also broken below $100. The floodgates of selling may be on the process of opening.… Read more

Crude Oil prices spiked higher, yesterday, as those who sold everything, betting on a debt default, covered everything, due to the debt deal. WTI prices surged back above $102, which is the bottom of the painfully long running range between $102 and $109, which has persisted, since mid-July.… Read more

Oil prices continue to be buffeted by the debt wrangling in Washington, and get mild support from supply issues. One such issue, the threatened strike at the Grangemouth refinery in Scotland, has cleared. The strike has been called off. The situation had diminished, anyway, on word that North Sea crude would flow.… Read more

Oil prices were affected to a degree, yesterday, by the machinations on Washington, as the risk-on trade emerged, after hopes of a deal to avoid default were raised. We failed to mention a key data point, yesterday, however: China crude imports rose to a record, while exports declined, emblematic of the slowdown in Europe.… Read more