Month: September 2013

Late Friday, word came down that President Obama and Iran’s President Rouhani spoke via telephone, as Rouhani was headed to the airport to return to Iran, after his week at the UNGA. The pair commiserated over New York’s difficult traffic, and they acknowledged the difficulties of the relationship between the two countries.… Read more

WTI oil prices are holding just above key support at $102 per barrel. It has taken several runs at the key to no avail. The scrutiny over Iranian President Rouhani’s visit to the UNGA is continuing. Mostly, it is being viewed with skepticism and as a charm offensive – a kinder, gentler version of his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.… Read more

The new Iranian president apparently failed to consider that President Obama might actually accept his overture to meet on the sidelines of the UN general Assembly and even shake hands. We imagine that President Rouhani was advised that Obama was willing to meet, and, after gulping, said, “Let’s get the heck out of here.”… Read more

Over the past several months, we referred to the litany of oil supply threats, both real and imagined, that combined to push prices higher, as the global market got somewhat tight. Now, almost the mirror image is playing out. First of all, Saudi Arabia, as is their wont, responded to the market conditions and have pushed up output to over 10 million bpd, and they have reiterated a capacity of 12.5 million bpd.… Read more

Oil prices are unchanged this morning, after falling on Friday, as the October WTI futures contract expired. And it expired in very weak fashion; sinking below the November futures contract in price, end a long period of backwardation. The decline in crude oil inventories at the Cushing, OK delivery point was thought to be sufficient to cause a squeeze or even a delivery failure against the expiring positions, but that did not happen.… Read more

Oil prices fell, yesterday, as the euphoria from the Fed’s commitment to maintain the pace of asset purchases faded. Prices also came under pressure from the increased focus on Iran and the apparent outreach that has occurred between Iran and the US.… Read more

Oil prices caught the buying wave across all asset classes that was provided by the Fed’s decision not to reduce bond purchases, yesterday. While we had concluded that no tapering would be announced, we underestimated the market reaction to our correct call.… Read more

The petroleum complex posted losses across-the-board, yesterday. RBOB gasoline and heating oil fell hard, and WTI and Brent crude broke through key, psychological support levels. The combination of the Syria deal and the resumption of Libyan oil production weighed on prices.… Read more

Crude oil prices continue to fall, as the two-pronged issue of real and imagined supply threats recede. The imagined is Syria, and that situation is in full diplomatic attenuation for now. The UN did declare with finality that Sarin gas was used, but the US and Russia are still battling over who did it.… Read more

You can say goodbye to the Syria risk premium, at least the part attributable to a US military strike anyway. The fighting will rage on, but the spillover concerns should remain contained. The Yom Kippur observance passed without incident over the weekend, and whatever is going on in Egypt, it is not making the news.… Read more