Month: September 2012

November NYMEX WTI extended a rally off the recent break of 89.00 to as far as 92.71 in price action, so far today. The market has fallen back to 92.00, but should probably head into the week and quarter end with a firm tone.… Read more

Price action took November NYMEX WTI prices to their lowest level since August 3rd, before regaining about $1.00 of lost ground before settlement. Initial downward momentum can only be attributed to growing concerns regarding the European debt crisis, which sparked a safe-haven rally in the US dollar.… Read more

Thank you Mr. Plosser, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank. Your comment that conveying the idea that QE3 will have “a substantive impact on labor markets and the speed of the recovery risks the Fed’s credibility”, has driven a very important nail in the coffin of the absurd counter-intuitive thinking that drove WTI prices to over $100.00 recently.… Read more

November NYMEX WTI found relief near recent lows, from the pressure consequent to a rising dollar. Investors sought a measure of safety in the greenback as European policymakers stumble towards resolution of their ongoing financial and economic woes. Expectation that weekly measurements of crude oil stockpiles will show more expansion also kept buyers restrained, as well.… Read more

Fundamental calculus as opposed to monetary policy remained the focus as the week waned. After a dramatic break on Monday, prices seemed to regain footing by Wednesday, but overnight price action today, so far, has brought renewed selling pressure. The market has largely digested the implications of the new stimulus programs, and continuing weak macroeconomic data suggest

October expiration yesterday produced a rather lackluster session of retracement on the heels of the dramatic fall, earlier in the week. Head-scratching continues over Monday’s abrupt price break. A rally based on an expectation that stimulative monetary policy was going to promote aggregate demand growth and employment, where it previously has not, was doomed from the outset.… Read more

The recent sentiment shift sharpened its lower focus yesterday with the weekly inventory reports which were interpreted as particularly bearish due to the large build in crude oil inventories and the steep decline in distillate demand that EIA reported. There has been no shortage of talk in recent days attempting to parse this abrupt shift in sentiment.… Read more

Investor focus on the likely economic benefit of additional stimulus was further discredited early in the European session as crude oil prices quickly retreated from the day’s high, reached after the Bank of Japan announced that it would expand its asset purchase program by 10 trillion yen in an effort to stimulate its economy as global demand slows.… Read more

It wasn’t a fat-fingered flash-crash. It wasn’t an SPR release. CFTC can stop their investigation. It was long liquidation; pure and simple. Why? Nothing more than an overbought market breaching an important psychological level which failed to produce follow-on momentum. The folly of the counter-intuitive thinking that has ruled participants’ thinking was finally exposed.… Read more

Front month NYMEX posted over the psychological mark of $100, so now everyone will assume that much higher levels are imminent. But surrendering $1.40 by settlement shows a good deal of skepticism remains as concerns about the effect on the economy of high fuel costs cast doubts on hopes for energy demand growth as a consequence of monetary stimulus.… Read more